AGP Executive Report

Peru’s Rightward Turn: Keiko Fujimori is set to be sworn in as Peru’s president, extending a broader regional shift to the right as voters push back on crime and instability. Brazil’s Election Tech Twist: Jair Bolsonaro, under house arrest, appeared via an AI-generated avatar at his son’s campaign launch, spotlighting how virtual surrogates could reshape political messaging. Colombia Solar Deal: NOVVA Group will buy a 37.8 MW Colombian solar portfolio from ABO Energy, targeting early 2028 operations as demand for clean power rises. Payments Push Across Borders: ACI Worldwide and dLocal teamed up to let global merchants access local payment methods in Brazil and Mexico via a single integration. Caribbean Connectivity & Business: Barbados is positioning itself as a base for remote executives with purpose-built work-and-recovery facilities, while the region also moves to modernize services and infrastructure. Climate Pressure: Forecasts warn a strong Super El Niño could intensify extreme weather, adding new risks for commodities and supply chains.

U.S.-China Tech & Infrastructure Push: The Trump administration plans to spend $175.8M to replace undersea telecom cables in the Caribbean and Central America, aiming to block China’s influence, per a congressional notification. Rural Connectivity in Argentina: Javier Milei says Enacom and Starlink will bring satellite internet to 6,000 rural schools, with kits donated and service funded via Argentina’s Universal Service Fund for an initial multi-year period. Drug War Reality Check: A new DEA assessment says U.S. strikes on drug boats in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific haven’t reduced cocaine entering the U.S.; traffickers are shifting to larger vessels and more air routes. Regional Trade & Defense: South Korea’s Lee and Brazil’s Lula agreed to speed up a Korea-Mercosur trade pact and expand cooperation into aerospace, critical minerals, and defense industry talks. Guyana Development Financing: Guyana’s National Assembly tabled new deals for transport, hospitals, and climate-resilient water, including loans involving Santander, China CAMC, and the Caribbean Development Bank. Haiti Elections Set: Haiti’s electoral council schedules presidential and legislative elections for Dec. 13, with a Feb. 21, 2027 second round and local votes depending on security and funding.

EU Trade & Climate Credibility: A new critique says the EU sets tough green rules but often fails to enforce them once deals and lobbying pressure hit, raising doubts about whether standards like deforestation and due diligence will hold beyond paper. Panama Trade & Health Policy: Panama and the Philippines agreed a joint trade and investment agenda aimed at building a connectivity corridor, while Panama also moved medicinal cannabis from law to reality with its first specialized pharmacy, new licenses, and controlled-product imports. Panama Canal Revenue Boost: The canal expects 2026 revenue to top its $5.2 billion forecast after Strait of Hormuz disruptions pushed more ships through, including extra payments from vessels skipping queues. Regional Diplomacy Tensions: Brazil recalled its ambassador to Argentina after Javier Milei’s insults at a Sao Paulo event, escalating a fresh diplomatic spat. Guyana Ferry Disaster Probe: Guyana named a five-member independent commission to investigate the MV Barima capsizing, including safety compliance, overload questions, and emergency response failures. Venezuela Housing Damage: Reporting from Venezuela’s quake-hit coast describes how promised earthquake-proof public housing failed, leaving residents trapped and calling trust in rebuilding into question. Caribbean Inclusive Education: Trinidad and Tobago’s education minister backed “nothing about us without us” at a Caribbean Deaf Education Conference, pushing better sign-language access and rights-based inclusion.

Diplomatic Tensions: Brazil recalled its ambassador to Argentina after Javier Milei’s insults at a São Paulo event, while Milei accused Brazil of funding an anti-Argentina campaign tied to the World Cup. State Visits & Trade: South Korea’s Lee Jae Myung arrived in Brazil for a Lula summit and business roundtable, pushing for renewed Mercosur free-trade talks as Seoul seeks deeper investment ties. Business Expansion: Chipotle opened its first Mexico restaurant in Monterrey-area San Pedro Garza García, with more sites planned in Nuevo León and Mexico City targeted for 2027. Regional Governance: Kingston Mayor Andrew Swaby joined Bloomberg Harvard’s city leadership initiative, focusing on housing, public safety, and better local service delivery. Caribbean Culture: Montreal’s Haïti en Folie launched its 20th edition, spotlighting Haitian music and diaspora life amid ongoing security and migration pressures. Disaster & Accountability: Guyana appointed international experts to investigate the MV Barima ferry sinking, including possible negligence and life-saving equipment failures.

Brazil Election Race: Brazil’s Liberal Party formally nominated Senator Flávio Bolsonaro as its presidential candidate, setting up a clash with incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in October. US-Brazil Tensions: Brazil denied visas to two senior U.S. State Department officials who planned to question the fairness of Brazil’s electoral system, calling it election interference. Venezuela ICC Exit: Venezuela notified the UN it is withdrawing from the International Criminal Court, accusing the tribunal of “geographical bias” against the Global South; the U.S. welcomed the move. UN Leadership Bid: Uganda nominated veteran diplomat Olara Otunnu as a contender for the next UN secretary-general, pledging reforms and a focus on major conflicts and AI governance. Human Trafficking Crackdown (Caribbean): Trinidad and Tobago detained a TTDF soldier and two others in an alleged trafficking and sexual exploitation case involving a 17-year-old Venezuelan girl. AI Governance (Global, LatAm-relevant): China’s Xi Jinping called for stronger international AI cooperation and a fair governance framework as AI reshapes economies and raises safety and ethics concerns.

Brazil–U.S. Election Tension: Brazil denied visas to two senior Trump-era U.S. State Department officials meant to scrutinize the Oct. 4 vote, calling it election interference as Lula seeks reelection and Flávio Bolsonaro’s candidacy takes shape. Brazil Politics: The Liberal Party formally nominated Flávio Bolsonaro, Jair Bolsonaro’s son, setting up a high-stakes fight against Lula amid warnings of democratic backsliding. Venezuela Earthquake Recovery: A month after the double quake, Venezuela’s recovery remains under strain as rescue shifts from survivors to bodies and officials report thousands of inspections in Caracas to judge habitability. Caribbean Sports & Culture: West Indies edged Pakistan in a rain-affected Test opener in Trinidad; Karol G kicked off her Tropitour in Chicago; and the region’s sports calendar keeps rolling into the Central American and Caribbean Games. Caribbean Governance & Tech: OECS and Morocco pushed trade and investment cooperation, while the Caribbean AI Forum advanced regional AI governance and resilience plans. Security & Justice: Trinidad and Tobago’s CTU detained suspects in a major alleged trafficking ring, while Panama arrested people over illegal gold mining in the Río María Prieto area.

ICC Fallout: Venezuela notified the UN it will withdraw from the International Criminal Court, accusing the court of “geographical bias” that targets Africa and Latin America as it investigates alleged crimes by Nicolas Maduro’s government. Justice Shake-Up: ICC chief prosecutor Karim Khan was removed over sexual misconduct allegations, after member states voted to dismiss him for “serious misconduct.” Politics & Security: The US is reportedly sending senior officials to Brazil to question the fairness of the electoral system ahead of the Oct. 4 presidential vote, while Mexico faces a new US push to target politicians accused of taking cartel money. Regional Governance & Debt: A Caricom-focused letter warns of high crime and debt risks tied to expanding membership. Sports & Influence: Jürgen Klopp was named Germany coach with a mandate to rebuild after early World Cup exits. Humanitarian & Recovery: One month after Venezuela’s double earthquake, victims are still sleeping in rubble. Culture & Spotlight: Shakira urged leaders to invest in children after praising Uganda’s Ghetto Kids. Caribbean Development: Curaçao’s Waterfort Plaza master plan was shortlisted for the 2026 World Architecture Festival.

ICC Shake-Up: ICC member states voted to remove chief prosecutor Karim Khan over sexual misconduct allegations, marking the first time a sitting chief prosecutor has been ousted and raising fresh questions as the court faces political pressure. Venezuela-ICC Rift: Venezuela notified the UN it is starting its “definitive” withdrawal from the Rome Statute, accusing the ICC of geographic bias against African and Latin American countries. U.S. Tariffs Ripple Through Latin America: New U.S. forced-labor-related tariffs on 60 partners took effect, with Latin American governments weighing the impact as overall tariff pressure remains lower than earlier peaks. Caribbean Health Security: CARPHA launched an Antimicrobial Resistance Regional Reference Laboratory in Jamaica to strengthen surveillance and diagnostics across the region. Regional Education Push (Belize): Belize’s Orange Walk District begins new school construction and upgrades under a CDB-backed education reform program. Connectivity & Tourism (Caribbean): InterCaribbean Airways unveiled its branded “Spirit of St. Vincent and the Grenadines” aircraft, positioning it as a tourism and infrastructure “flying ambassador.” Aviation Safety Concern (Bahamas): Bahamas grounded Flamingo Air after a crash killed 10 people, while another incident involving the airline was reported the same day.

UN Leadership Race: Six candidates for UN secretary-general—Chile’s Michelle Bachelet, Ecuador’s Maria Fernanda Espinosa, Argentina’s Rafael Grossi, Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan, Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett and Senegal’s Macky Sall—field tough questions in New York as the UN faces a financial and confidence crisis. Press Freedom Watch: Costa Rica’s sharp slide in the RSF press freedom ranking is linked to democratic backsliding, polarization and moves by President Rodrigo Chaves to weaken independent media. Trade & Tariffs: The U.S. rolls out new tariffs on 60 economies under a forced-labor rationale, with Latin America among the affected regions. Colombia Tax Burden: OECD data puts Colombia’s corporate income tax at 35%, one of the world’s highest rates. Venezuela Quake Fallout: Reporting highlights how Venezuela’s June earthquakes are worsening an already deep economic and political crisis. Caribbean Biosecurity: Curaçao bans all living banana plant imports from Venezuela to prevent Panama disease Tropical Race 4. Regional Sports: CARIFTA 2027 is headed to Guyana, with 2028 to Barbados.

UN Leadership Race: Six candidates for UN secretary-general faced a public debate in the General Assembly Hall, with Chile’s Michelle Bachelet, Ecuador’s Maria Fernanda Espinosa, Argentina’s Rafael Grossi, Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan, Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett and Senegal’s Macky Sall all pitching how to steer the UN through a trust and financial crisis. Chile-U.S.-China Balancing Act: Chile’s diplomacy is under strain as it seeks closer ties with Washington while still relying on China for most copper and lithium exports. Ecuador Crime & Extortion: A new InSight Crime podcast spotlights how gang extortion in Durán is reshaping daily life and small business under the shadow of the Chone Killers. Amazon Security: Ashaninka leaders warn armed drug-trafficking groups are expanding into Indigenous territory along the Brazil-Peru border, pushing for stronger protection. Venezuela Earthquake Costs: The World Bank estimates Venezuela’s June quakes caused about $19.6bn in direct damage, with rebuilding costs potentially far higher. Mexico Drug-Terror Sanctions: The U.S. Treasury sanctioned more than 50 people and entities tied to CJNG, targeting leadership and illicit finance networks. Caribbean Digital Push: Trinidad and Tobago highlighted its digital credentials platform at an international webinar, while also exploring a dedicated AI data centre to boost regional competitiveness. Agriculture Resilience: IICA ministers coordinated on preparing for possible El Niño impacts on food systems across the Americas.

Humanitarian Crisis in Cuba: The EU approved an extra €10 million in aid for Cuba as the energy crisis worsens, targeting health services, food support, and water repairs for the most vulnerable. Regional Connectivity: Contour Airlines will launch direct Dominica–Trinidad flights twice weekly starting Oct. 5, aiming to boost tourism and business links across the Eastern Caribbean. Aviation & Growth: BermudAir ordered 10 Airbus A220-300 jets to expand routes across Bermuda and the wider Atlantic region. Business in Latin America: MercadoLibre discussed a plan with Chilean authorities to run an in-house, online-only pharmacy, which would require regulatory changes. Energy & Latin America: Repsol said profit more than tripled in the first half, citing higher oil prices and expanded operations in Venezuela. Health & Climate: Florida researchers moved endangered elkhorn coral ashore to protect it from another potential heatwave. Tech & Identity: Jumio reported strong Q2 growth as it expands digital ID acceptance and continuous identity risk analysis. Sports & Youth: The Bahamas launches an inaugural U15 Girls Goombay Cup with six teams competing July 24–26.

Aviation & Tourism: BermudAir disclosed an order for 10 Airbus A220-300s to expand direct links across the Caribbean and Central/North America, with deliveries starting in Q4 2027. Humanitarian Response: Miami-Dade’s school board voted to send aid to Venezuela after last month’s back-to-back earthquakes, with support tailored “as needed” and a request for extra state education help. Regional Connectivity: Sunrise Airways launched twice-weekly direct service between Antigua and Barbuda and Barbados, pitching it as “One Caribbean” airlift for tourism and business. Trade & Tariffs: Brazil’s Lula signed an 18.5 billion reais emergency credit line to shield exporters from new 25% US tariffs. Venezuela Legal Pressure: A US judge set a June 1, 2027 trial date for Nicolás Maduro and Cilia Flores on drug trafficking charges, while Washington argues Delcy Rodríguez is immune in a separate oil-related case. Infrastructure: Digicel expanded its Saint Lucia fibre network, pushing coverage to nearly all homes by September. Politics & Elections: Nicaragua’s Ortega said elections will end, raising questions about how Washington responds compared with Cuba and Venezuela. Sports & Youth: The Bahamas Goombay Cup U-15 girls tournament kicks off in Nassau with six teams competing.

Real Estate & Cross-Border Growth: eXp Realty will hold its first eXpcon in Latin America in Medellín, Colombia (April 6–8, 2027), fully in Spanish, as demand rises for international real estate services across CALA markets. Aviation & Connectivity: Abra and Etihad signed a preliminary partnership to build a “bridge” between Latin America and the Middle East, with Avianca and Gol cooperation and possible A330-900 dry-lease talks. Caribbean Travel Deals: Caribbean Airlines launched “Travel Tuesday” fares between Trinidad and Toronto for August, including a free checked bag and upgrade options. Tourism Shock: Spain’s Meliá will completely shut down in Cuba due to sanctions and legal/financial hurdles, hitting an already strained tourism sector. Business & Markets: AT&T reported strong Q2 results and accelerated share repurchases; Interblock named Kay Oswald as CEO. Climate & Disasters: Chile’s El Niño-linked storms killed at least 10 and left over 100,000 stranded, while flooding and power outages spread. Demographics: Colombia’s aging accelerates fast, with projections showing more older adults than children by 2036.

Nicaragua Democracy Crackdown: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned Nicaragua after President Daniel Ortega said the country will hold no more elections, a move that cancels the 2027 vote and tightens his grip as opposition leaders face exile and asset seizures. World Cup Expansion Push: South America’s football body CONMEBOL pressed FIFA to adopt a 64-team World Cup for 2030, arguing Uruguay, Argentina and Paraguay could host more matches, while FIFA says any change will be reviewed after the 2026 tournament. Caribbean Sports & Tourism: The XXV Santo Domingo 2026 Central American and Caribbean Games kicked off with water polo and badminton, with the Dominican government citing major infrastructure spending; meanwhile Turks and Caicos reported its strongest first-half tourism on record, with new air service and luxury hotel openings ahead. Regional Safety & Environment: Guyana raised the MV Barima ferry disaster death toll to at least 41 as searches continue; Sint Maarten reported a massive fish kill linked to oxygen drops. Tech & Security: A UN report says Southeast Asia’s criminal networks are using tech and AI to expand a global illicit economy, including scams that target children.

Amazon Conservation: Spain’s Inditex is funding a €6.5 million, 2026-2028 push with Conservation International to protect more than 2 million hectares of the Amazon across Brazil, Ecuador, Bolivia, Colombia, Peru and Suriname, including support for Indigenous lands and protected areas. Food Security: A UN report says global hunger fell for a third straight year in 2025, reaching 645 million people (7.8%), with gains in Latin America and the Caribbean, but warns climate shocks and trade disruptions could stall progress. World Cup Economics: FIFA president Gianni Infantino floated the idea of a 64-team World Cup, a move that could reshape qualification value and shift money and influence toward FIFA. Payments Clash: Brazil’s Pix is at the center of a new US trade fight, with Washington citing Pix as a barrier as 25% tariffs on Brazilian imports take effect. Guyana Ferry Tragedy: Guyana says 27 bodies have been recovered and 83 people remain missing after the MV Barima capsized off its coast. Caribbean Mobility: Santo Domingo will make metro, cable car and buses free during the 25th Central American and Caribbean Games, running July 24-Aug. 8. Hate Speech Monitoring: Spain’s racism watchdog OBERAXE logged 40,861 hate-related posts in June, with World Cup-linked attacks targeting players including Lamine Yamal.

Maritime Safety Shock in the Caribbean: An investigative report compares the 1970 MV Christena disaster with Saturday’s capsizing of Guyana’s MV Barima, raising fresh questions about ferry design, loading practices, and accountability. Haiti Crisis, Regional Security: U.S. Ambassador Mike Waltz backed the Dominican Republic’s view that Haiti’s gang crisis is a cross-border security threat, with spillover risks for the wider Caribbean. U.S.-Cuba Tensions Escalate: A new State Department report accuses Cuba of infiltrating top U.S. government levels and supporting left-wing activism, intensifying Cold War-style rhetoric. Central America’s Democratic Crackdown: Nicaragua’s Daniel Ortega says the country will hold no more elections, framing new laws as a “wall” against the opposition. Violence Against Children: UNICEF and PAHO report more than 53,000 children and adolescents were murdered in Latin America and the Caribbean between 2015 and 2022, with violence in homes also flagged. Sports and Regional Identity: Cricket and baseball community initiatives—from a Guyana developmental scholarship to Puerto Rico’s Day at the Ballpark—highlight how sports remain a key cultural bridge across the region.