AGP Executive Report

Brazil’s Election: The presidential race entered a decisive week, with Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro set for a debate ahead of the runoff. Regional Trade: Guyana’s goods trade is projected to grow 15% in 2026, according to ECLAC. Migration: US immigrant visa issuances fell sharply in February; they were down 60% for South America and 53% for the Caribbean compared with recent monthly averages. Security: Costa Rica’s capture of a major fugitive exposed a growing illicit arms market, including weapons, ammunition and surveillance drones used by criminal groups. Digital Business: Tap to Pay on iPhone is launching in eight Latin American countries through six partners. Colombia: An AI cancer-screening platform is set for a 10,000-patient validation study in Bogotá. Consumer Brands: Corona Extra retained its title as the world’s most valuable beer brand, as Latin American brands helped drive industry growth.

Guatemala: A former anti-corruption prosecutor was shot dead at a sports centre, renewing concerns about threats to justice advocates. Amazon Security: Indigenous leaders from Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru are urging the UN to confront criminal networks behind illegal mining, drug trafficking and deforestation—and give Indigenous communities a greater role in protecting their lands. Guyana’s Oil Governance: Georgetown says it will include government, industry and civil society in discussions on extractive-sector transparency, as the country takes a seat on the EITI’s international board representing Latin America and the Caribbean. Regional Economy: At IMF and World Bank meetings, developing nations called for stronger digital connectivity to share in the AI boom, while warning that high debt, energy costs and climate risks are squeezing vulnerable economies. US Military Role: A report says US MQ-9 Reaper drones are operating in Ecuador, with Colombia also planning to receive the aircraft as the countries deepen military cooperation with Washington.

Guatemala: Anti-corruption lawyer Juan Francisco Solorzano Foppa was shot dead in Guatemala City; police detained two suspects, and President Bernardo Arévalo vowed to pursue those behind the killing. Colombia: The government says its expanded campaign against criminal groups has made more than 21,900 arrests since August, targeting illicit finances and support networks as well as armed members. Mexico: Airlines are cutting Tulum flights as tourism slumps: capacity is down about half for the season, with American ending its Miami service and Aeroméxico and Volaris also pulling back. Mining: A planned strike at Chile’s Escondida mine adds to disruption across the copper sector, as falling output and labor disputes threaten supply amid rising global demand. Haiti: A private security firm’s arms deal with Haiti’s police is under scrutiny, with at least $7 million in public funds unaccounted for and questions over permits and oversight. Amazon: Brazil says deforestation has fallen to its lowest level since 1988, a notable gain as the region faces pressure to protect forests.

UN Race: Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett was blocked in the latest Security Council poll, deepening the deadlock over Antonio Guterres’s successor. Senegal’s Macky Sall has withdrawn, saying earlier ballots favored a Latin American or Caribbean candidate, possibly a woman. Economic Outlook: The IMF sees Trinidad and Tobago growing just 0.2% in 2026, while oil-rich Guyana is forecast to expand 22.3%. The Fund also urged Latin America to curb debt and lift productivity as regional growth remains modest. Caribbean Support: Washington announced more than $340 million for connectivity, health and security projects in the Caribbean and Central America. Environment: Brazil says Amazon deforestation fell 42%, reaching its lowest level since 1988. Regional Security: Hundreds of U.S. troops are reportedly heading to Latin America as the Trump administration expands its campaign against drug-trafficking groups.

U.S.–Caribbean Ties: Washington announced more than $340 million for regional connectivity, health care and security, including $175.8 million for undersea cables. At a Washington dialogue, Guyana’s prime minister urged Caribbean nations to diversify energy supplies and attract more U.S. investment. Argentina: Javier Milei and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio agreed to pursue stronger trade, investment and security cooperation. Brazil’s Runoff: An electoral court ordered Meta to treat Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro equally ahead of the Oct. 25 vote, after Lula’s campaign alleged platform bias. Amazon: Brazil reported deforestation fell 42% in the Amazon over the year to July, to its lowest level on record; a Bolsonaro victory could put environmental protections at risk. Regional Security: Ecuador arrested four FARC dissident commanders accused of killings and trafficking in the border region. Puerto Rico: Water rationing has exposed a deeper crisis shaped by aging infrastructure and unequal access, not drought alone.

Kingdom Reform: Aruba, Curaçao and Sint Maarten are advancing a proposed dispute-settlement law with the Netherlands, while Curaçao’s parliament weighs extending reform cooperation before its April 2027 expiry. U.S. in the Region: Washington pledged more than $340 million for Caribbean programs as reports emerged of 600 U.S. troops deploying to Latin America for anti-cartel efforts. Economy: The IMF doubts Mexico can reach the world’s top 10 economies by 2030. In Brazil, O-I Glass plans a new furnace in Pernambuco that will double the plant’s capacity; Chile also reported record avocado exports. Panama Recovery: Regional insurer CCRIF will pay Panama $17.4 million after last week’s earthquake damaged schools and public infrastructure. Climate Finance: Biodiversity funding remains short of global targets ahead of COP17, while a GEF-IDB initiative aims to attract private investment for conservation in Latin America and the Caribbean. Care Economy: A regional study warns that the eight million older adults needing daily assistance could triple by 2050, with women shouldering much of the unpaid care.

Brazil’s Runoff: President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and right-wing challenger Flávio Bolsonaro are headed to an Oct. 25 runoff after Bolsonaro narrowly led the first round. The contest pits Lula’s social-spending agenda against Bolsonaro’s promised spending cuts. Workers’ Rights: Brazil’s Senate approved a constitutional amendment ending the six-day workweek, guaranteeing two paid rest days and gradually reducing the maximum workweek from 44 to 40 hours without cutting pay. Debt Pressures: The G24 warned that high borrowing costs and mounting debt are squeezing developing economies, calling for more accessible, affordable financing. Amazon and Border Security: Latin American and Caribbean forest loss fell 28% in 2025, but the region still lost about 2.54 million hectares. Peru and Ecuador are coordinating intelligence and operations to stop illegal mining and logging networks from shifting across their border. Trade: The EU removed Panama from its tax-haven blacklist, a decade after the Panama Papers scandal.

Guyana Ferry Disaster: An inquiry heard the MV Barima’s emergency beacon was unregistered, while distress alerts went unanswered for hours before officials learned of the July disaster that killed dozens. Regional Migration: Jamaica has placed 22 people sent from the US under an arrangement in IOM care as authorities arrange their return to their home countries. Colombia Protests: Thousands marched peacefully against President Abelardo de la Espriella, testing the left’s ability to mobilize after losing power and amid new rules on protests. US-Caribbean Tensions: Caribbean leaders are meeting US officials to discuss security and investment as US strikes on alleged trafficking boats have killed at least 238 people, including Caribbean nationals. Security and Rights: Costa Rica has opened a mega-prison modeled on El Salvador’s Bukele-era approach, reflecting a regional shift toward tougher responses to organized crime. Brazil’s Runoff: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro face an October 25 vote that could reshape Brazil’s role in BRICS; militia influence and control over local communities are also in focus. Regional Economy: The IMF has cut its Latin America and Caribbean growth outlook to 2.3%, citing an energy shock and limited gains from AI.

Diplomatic Shift: Colombia opened an embassy in Jerusalem, reversing former President Gustavo Petro’s break with Israel. President Abelardo de la Espriella’s move deepens ties with Israel and marks a sharp change in foreign policy. Brazil’s Runoff: The Senate approved a constitutional amendment cutting the maximum workweek from 44 to 40 hours without reducing pay. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is expected to sign it before the Oct. 25 runoff. Crime Policy: Costa Rica inaugurated a 5,100-person high-security prison modeled on El Salvador’s Bukele-era approach, as regional governments embrace tougher crackdowns amid concerns over civil liberties. Household Costs: The IMF expects Antigua and Barbuda’s growth to slow to 2.4% this year as inflation rises to 3.6%. Residents also protested rising utility bills and service disruptions. Money-Laundering Case: Colombian businessman Álvaro Pulido appeared in a Miami court over US charges alleging that proceeds from a Venezuelan government food-and-medicine contract scheme moved through bank accounts in Antigua and other jurisdictions.

Leadership and Living Costs: Javier Milei ranked 14th among Latin American leaders in a regional favorability poll, with 36.1% viewing him positively as recession fears weigh on support for his austerity drive. In the Dominican Republic, nearly four in 10 workers live in poverty despite strong economic growth, a study says. Migration: Jamaica received its first U.S. flight carrying 22 third-country migrants, mostly South Americans, under a deal that makes the island a temporary transit hub; the arrangement faces legal scrutiny. Regional Ties: Paraguay is standing by its relationship with Taiwan despite Chinese sanctions, keeping a diplomatic dispute in focus as countries weigh economic links against political pressure. Economic Outlook: The IMF cut its 2026 growth forecast for Latin America and the Caribbean to 2.3%, citing an energy shock and limited boost from AI; Argentina’s forecast fell to 2.1%.

Migration: Jamaica received its first 22 third-country deportees from the United States under a controversial agreement that makes the island a transit point for migrants with no ties there. Brazil’s Election: Flávio Bolsonaro narrowly led President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Sunday’s vote, setting up an Oct. 25 runoff as right-wing parties gained ground in Congress. Guyana’s Energy Plans: Exxon says it needs more offshore gas to boost oil output, potentially halving the capacity of a planned LNG project or forcing Guyana to abandon exports. Economic Outlook: The IMF cut its 2026 growth forecast for Latin America to 2.3% and lowered Argentina’s to 2.1%. Workers’ Rights: Thousands of Venezuelan workers rallied for higher wages; the minimum wage has been unchanged since 2022, with the government relying on bonuses instead. Amazon Forests: Latin American deforestation fell 33% in 2025, aided by Brazil’s enforcement efforts, but researchers warn that worsening El Niño conditions could put progress at risk.

Panama Quake: A powerful earthquake and more than 100 aftershocks prompted a state of emergency and school closures; reports say 27 people were injured. Economic Outlook: The IMF lowered Latin America’s 2026 growth forecast to 2.3% and sharply cut its outlook for Argentina. Copper Disruptions: Strikes shut operations at Chile’s biggest copper mines, raising concerns for a key export industry. Dollarization Debate: Ecuador’s experience is drawing regional attention: former president Rafael Correa opposed dollarization but could not undo it, as the system retained public support. Mining Investment: Giraffe Bio raised $6.4 million to develop lower-impact copper-recovery technology, becoming the first Latin American company selected for Breakthrough Energy’s Fellows Program. Regional Tensions: China sanctioned officials from Belize and Paraguay over their ties with Taiwan, sharpening pressure on the two countries’ diplomatic choices.

Panama Earthquake: A powerful quake was followed by more than 100 aftershocks, prompting a state of emergency and nationwide school closures; a magnitude 6.1 tremor struck Tuesday. Regional Tensions: China sanctioned Paraguay’s communications minister and Belize’s foreign minister over their countries’ ties with Taiwan, escalating pressure on two of Taiwan’s remaining allies in the region. Colombia Violence: Rebels set off a car bomb outside a toll booth as fighting intensified in Cauca. Political Crossroads: Brazil’s divided election is heading to a runoff, while Haiti has postponed its first elections in a decade. Venezuela Investment: Colombian billionaire Jaime Gilinski is poised to become GeoPark’s majority shareholder after trading a Venezuelan oil-field deal for a stake valued at about $515 million. Regional Growth: Guyana and Jamaica signed a tourism cooperation deal focused on investment, training and connectivity as Guyana expands its visitor industry.

China-Taiwan Tensions: Beijing sanctioned senior officials from Paraguay and Belize over their countries’ ties with Taiwan, escalating pressure on two of the region’s remaining diplomatic allies of the island. Brazil’s Election: More than 119 million Brazilians voted Oct. 4; about 75,000 cast ballots at polling sites in the United States. Caribbean Security: U.S. strikes on alleged trafficking boats have killed at least 238 people since September 2025, according to figures cited by News Americas Now. Environmental Crime: An Interpol operation across Latin America and the Caribbean led to 233 arrests and linked 161 firms to Amazon clearing. Panama Earthquake: A 7.7-magnitude quake prompted a state of emergency and tsunami alerts across the region; the alerts have since been lifted. Business: MercadoLibre’s second-quarter revenue and financial income rose 50% to $10.2 billion, while operating income fell 17% as the company reinvested in growth. Regional Cooperation: Jamaica and Guyana agreed to deepen tourism ties, including on investment, air links and training.

Mexico’s Pacific Coast: Hurricane Simon battered resorts and vulnerable communities with destructive winds and heavy rain, prompting evacuations and school closures. Panama Earthquake: Authorities declared an emergency after a powerful quake damaged buildings and injured dozens; the shaking briefly disrupted Tocumen Airport, while tsunami alerts were later withdrawn. Brazil’s Election: The Oct. 25 runoff between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro could reset ties with China, as Washington pushes to curb Beijing’s influence in the region. Argentina’s Auto Market: Chinese brands are gaining ground after the country eased protections, reaching 10% of car and light-commercial sales in August, up from about 2% late last year. Cuba’s Humanitarian Strain: As more than 1.4 million people leave the island, nuns are caring for older women left behind amid shortages of food, water and medicine. Caribbean Outlook: The World Bank says the region faces a two-speed recovery, with uneven growth across economies.

Panama Earthquake: A powerful quake injured at least 27 people and damaged buildings, prompting a nationwide state of emergency. The government authorized up to $100 million for emergency purchases and plans to seek a temporary suspension of fiscal limits. Diplomatic Shift: Colombia will open an embassy in Jerusalem, reversing the previous government’s break with Israel as President Abelardo de la Espriella restores ties. Digital Access: Venezuela has authorized SpaceX’s Starlink to operate nationwide, potentially expanding internet access. Green Transition: Chile’s Atacama salt flats hold vast lithium reserves, but researchers warn that extraction for electric-vehicle batteries threatens water, wildlife and Indigenous communities. Growth and Resilience: The World Bank sees Latin American and Caribbean growth at 2.2% this year, while projecting Guyana’s economy will expand 23.7%. Caribbean partners have also launched a US$250 million bond to fund climate resilience and growth.